Coronavirus 2019: the facts you must know

Coronavirus pandemic continues to disrupt the world order. So many people have lost lives, and many others have lost their loved ones. It is tragic and unfortunate. To all the survivors and the sick, please accept my sympathies. To all people who have died, may their Souls Rest in Eternal Peace.

The more you read about the world population control strategies by some world leaders, and the search for global dominance, the more confused one becomes. Who is telling the truth? Does covid19 deserve the attention it has been given? Is covid19 the leading killer disease in the world today? How does the disease spread? What are the best control measures to prevent its spread? Is it airborne or not? How do we separate the #covid19 death cases from other known causes? What is the proportion of the #covid19 deaths to the ‘normal’ deaths that happen daily in the world?

When the whole picture is told, and people know the truth appropriate precautions can be made and normal life resume. The cost of the lockdown could be catastrophic, considering the global cases continue to rise as more people are tested. After all, no one leaves life alive. Since the covid19 case death rate has been low, the lockdown should be eased.

My conclusion is based on the following facts:

1. The highest global death rate was recorded in 1950, at 20.15%, and 0% global population growth. 1968 recorded the lowest net average world population growth rate at -3.710%, implying that people who died in that year exceeded the newborns, thereby reducing the global population. In the same year, the death rate was at 13.508% because of a pandemic, referred to as Hong Kong Flu, which is said to have killed an estimated one million people worldwide. Similarly, in 1950, there was a pandemic that killed millions of people globally.
2. The global average death rate has remained at 7.969% to 7.579% between 2009 to 2020. In the last decade, 2013 was the worst year with a net global population decrease of 0.98%, while 2019 recorded a net population increase by 0.44%. As of today, 2^nd May 2020, the net average global population growth is 0.44%.
3. According to the WHO, the leading cause of death is Ischaemic heart disease and stroke, which together accounted for over 15.2 million death in 2016. Then chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, diabetes, dementia. Road accidents killed 1.4m people in 2016 alone!

Figure 1, global leading causes of deaths in 2016

Source: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

4. As of today, the total deaths due to covid19 is 238,775, from 58,901 deaths as of 3^rd April 2020, indicating an average daily death rate of 5,996 globally, during the pandemic peak days.

Source: WHO.

5. The daily deaths due to Ischaemic heart disease and stroke were 41,643 in 2016! Today, these two diseases continue to claim the highest deaths. Why are Ischaemic heart disease and stroke not declared global pandemic since they claim 87% of lives per day compared to #covi19 that claims just 13% daily?

Figure 3; daily covid19 deaths vs heart diseases and stroke

Source: WHO.

6. In East Africa, and Africa in general, the leading cause of death are lower respiratory tract infections, HIV/AIDS, Diarrhoeal diseases, Malaria and Tuberculosis, then heart diseases and stroke, road injuries… In 2016, road injuries alone claimed more than 280,000 people in Africa!  If you compare this to the covid19 cases, even road accidents should be declared a pandemic in East Africa! In figures

6. Based on aforesaid facts, the #covid19 pandemic story seems to be told in parts and has left the world more worried, alarmed, and separated instead of uniting to confront the common enemy. Already, the case death rate even without a cure or vaccine for #coronavirus cases is not alarming at 7.1% as of 2^nd May 2020 from 5.4% as of 3^rd April 2020. One would say, coronavirus is not as deadly as some current diseases which have high case death rates as high as 30%!
7. I am aware that coronavirus overwhelms the health facilities because it spreads fast, but as the statistics above show, it is a new reality that the world must acknowledge and manage. The current lockdown and tough controls could be leading to more death due to hunger, poverty, and loneliness than the virus itself. And the projected economic meltdown in terms of lost incomes and massive layoffs could worsen the other existing conditions like lifestyle diseases.
8. Countries must develop custom strategies and capabilities to manage covid19 as part of the country’s present health and economic challenges. Now is the time to implement adequate controls, by investing in public disinfection capabilities like automatic sprays in cars and public spaces, real-time temperature checks, and remote working. If borders are open to cargo, cases shall continue to be registered. This calls for a national health strategy, and specifically a #covid19 response and recovery strategy, to manage the pandemic problem, as people work to eke a living. The poverty pandemic could be worse, and it may be too late.

What is your take on the state of covid19 in your country? Would you support the lifting of the lockdown?

Copyright Mustapha B Mugisa, 2020. All rights reserved.